Fantasy projections
you can audit.
Player projections, matchup grades, waiver values and trade values for every roster spot — with the accuracy of every number published, week by week, next to consensus.
Rolling correlation to actual fantasy points
Pearson correlation between projected and actual PPR points, trailing 4 weeks, all skill positions with ≥5 snaps.
Every number, with the reasoning underneath it.
Projections are the output. What you actually need is the usage, the matchup, and the market context that produced them.
Weekly projections
Median, floor and ceiling for every rostered player, rebuilt after each practice report and inactives list.
Matchup grades
Defense-adjusted grades by position, route type and alignment — slot, wide, backfield, in-line.
Usage & splits
Snap share, route participation, target share, air yards, red-zone touches. Rolling 3-week and full-season views.
Waiver values
Rest-of-season value for every free agent, priced against the roster holes that actually matter.
Trade values
Two-sided trade valuations in redraft and dynasty, with the win-probability swing for both rosters.
Accuracy ledger
Every projection we have ever published, timestamped and kept on the record. Grade us against anyone.
This week's biggest projection gaps.
Where our model separates from consensus, and why. Updated continuously through Sunday morning.
| Player | Proj. | Consensus | Δ | Snap share trend | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RBK. Walker III RB · SEA · vs ARI | 18.4 | 13.1 | +5.3 | A− | |
WRA. St. Brown WR · DET · at CHI | 16.9 | 12.4 | +4.5 | A | |
TEC. Otton TE · TB · vs NO | 12.2 | 8.6 | +3.6 | B+ | |
QBJ. McCarthy QB · MIN · at GB | 21.7 | 18.9 | +2.8 | B | |
WRJ. Meyers WR · LV · vs DEN | 9.1 | 13.8 | −4.7 | C− | |
RBB. Hall RB · NYJ · at MIA | 7.8 | 11.5 | −3.7 | D+ |
No account. No password. Just the numbers.
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One field and one consent box. Nothing to install, nothing to remember, no card on file.
Get the drop
Injury-adjusted projections, late usage changes and the biggest gaps against consensus — 1 to 5 texts a day in season.
Grade the model
Every number we send goes into the accuracy ledger. Check our work after the games finish, week over week.
Built for people who check the math.
The published accuracy ledger is the whole reason I switched. Everyone claims their projections are better; these are the only ones I can actually check week over week.
Route participation and red-zone usage in the same view as the projection saves me an hour of tab-hopping every Saturday. Nobody else prices waiver values against the holes I actually have.
The texts hit before inactives settle and the numbers have already been re-run. I set my flex off them every week and stopped second-guessing myself at 12:58.
Questions worth asking.
How do you measure accuracy?
Pearson correlation between our projected PPR points and actual PPR points, computed on a trailing four-week window across every skill player with at least five snaps. We publish the same figure for site consensus, calculated identically.
What do the text messages contain?
Final injury-adjusted projections, late usage and depth-chart changes, and the biggest gaps between our model and consensus. Occasional program notices as well.
How many texts will I get?
Message frequency varies. Expect 1 to 5 messages per day during the season and substantially fewer in the offseason. Reply STOP at any time to end them.
How often do projections update?
Every 15 minutes during the week, and continuously from Sunday morning through the final inactive report. Practice participation, snap counts and depth-chart moves all trigger a rebuild.
How do I stop the texts?
Reply STOP to any message. You can also reply END, CANCEL, UNSUBSCRIBE or QUIT. We send one final confirmation and then stop. Reply HELP any time for support.
Does it cost anything?
The program is free to join and free to receive from us. Your carrier's standard message and data rates may still apply — check your plan.
Set your lineup on real numbers.
One field, one consent box, and the model drop lands on your phone. No account, no card.
Get the texts